Paul Welty, PhD AI, WORK, AND STAYING HUMAN

Bookmark: 41% of employers worldwide say they’ll reduce staff by 2030 due to AI

Explore how AI will reshape the workforce by 2030, with 41% of employers expecting staff reductions and new job opportunities emerging.

The World Economic Forum’s bi-annual survey reveals significant expectations for AI’s impact on employment, with a dual focus on job displacement and skill augmentation. By 2030, 41% of employers predict AI will reduce their staffing levels due to automation, although a majority, 77%, plan to train staff in AI competencies, indicating AI’s dual impact on job transformation and human workforce collaboration. Covering 1,000 employers and 14 million workers across 22 industries, the report underscores a skills gap with AI, big data, networks, and cybersecurity as burgeoning areas. Creative thinking, resilience, flexibility, agility, curiosity, and lifelong learning also emerge as crucial skills. Notably, roles like graphic designers and legal secretaries are poised for decline due to AI’s growing capabilities, such as generating complex graphics easily. Despite this, the report forecasts a net job growth of 78 million jobs, driven by new job creation outpacing employment displacement, equating to a 7% growth in total employment by 2030. Employers also stress health and well-being in attracting talent, especially pertinent in the U.S. due to its unique healthcare system. The report highlights increased productivity from AI-augmented human tasks, suggesting concerns over job scarcity may be unfounded as technology enhances human productivity by performing higher-value tasks.

41% of employers worldwide say they’ll reduce staff by 2030 due to AI


Featured writing

Why customer tools are organized wrong

This article reveals a fundamental flaw in how customer support tools are designed—organizing by interaction type instead of by customer—and explains why this fragmentation wastes time and obscures the full picture you need to help users effectively.

Busy is not a state

We've built work cultures that reward activity, even when nothing actually changes. In technical systems, activity doesn't count—only state change does. This essay explores why "busy" has become the most misleading signal we have, and how focusing on state instead of motion makes work more honest, less draining, and actually productive.

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Books

The Work of Being (in progress)

A book on AI, judgment, and staying human at work.

The Practice of Work (in progress)

Practical essays on how work actually gets done.

Recent writing

Dev reflection - January 31, 2026

I've been thinking about what happens when your tools start asking better questions than you do.

Dev reflection - January 30, 2026

So here's something that happened yesterday that I'm still thinking about. Seven different projects—completely unrelated work, different domains, different goals—all hit the same wall on the same d...

Dev reflection - January 29, 2026

So here's something I've been sitting with. You finish a piece of work. You ship it. Everything looks good. And then production starts teaching you that you weren't actually done.

Notes and related thinking

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